Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPI52805
Mouchoirs Papia - 3 plis - Multipack plastique - 550 x 3
midtail
3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▼ 24.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,034
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
16
≈ 2.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-20
AAAPI52805
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 521 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs Papia - 3 plis - Multipack plastique - 550 x 3 · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending down -24.0% · on-hand 16 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (518 days of history, 414 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.52 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 25 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 149.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 69.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 520.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.9K |