Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAPI52805
Mouchoirs Papia - 3 plis - Multipack plastique - 550 x 3
midtail
1P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 90.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-76.3%
vs same 4w last year (38 units)
Current stock
39
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
AAAPI52805
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 369 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs Papia - 3 plis - Multipack plastique - 550 x 3 · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -90.3% · on-hand 39 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (406 days of history, 355 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.56 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 93 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 11.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 34.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 69.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 42.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 159.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 369.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.5K |