Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPH85932
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs Marjane - 150 mouchoirs - 2 plis
longtail
3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
290
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-15
AAAPH85932
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 177 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs Marjane - 150 mouchoirs - 2 plis · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 323 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (483 days of history, 117 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.62 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 71.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 176.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.0K |