Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAPH85932
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs Marjane - 150 mouchoirs - 2 plis
longtail
3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
40
▲ 3900.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+566.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
120
≈ 58.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAPH85932
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs Marjane - 150 mouchoirs - 2 plis · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 40 units, trending up +3900.0% · on-hand 120 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (427 days of history, 110 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.60 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 40 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 146.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 837 |