Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPH85919
Papier toilette Papia - 3 plis - 9 unités
longtail
1P + 3P
PAPIERS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
229
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 7.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAPH85919
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Papier toilette Papia - 3 plis - 9 unités · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (448 days of history, 40 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 32.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |