Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPH21179
Gobelets en papier - 50 gobelets - 18 cl - Blanc - Écologiques et pratiques
longtail
1P
VAISSELLE JETABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
90
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
90
≈ 36.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-19
AAAPH21179
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gobelets en papier - 50 gobelets - 18 cl - Blanc - Écologiques et pratiques · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 90 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (343 days of history, 123 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.19 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 63.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |