Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPH21179
Gobelets en papier - 50 gobelets - 18 cl - Blanc - Écologiques et pratiques
longtail
1P
VAISSELLE JETABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
81
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
81
≈ 36.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-10
AAAPH21179
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 131 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gobelets en papier - 50 gobelets - 18 cl - Blanc - Écologiques et pratiques · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 81 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (399 days of history, 128 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.21 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 131.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |