Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPH21095
Bougies - HOME DECO FACTORY - 50 bougies - 9g - Diamètre 3,8 cm - Intérieur
midtail
3P
BOUGEOIR - PHOTOPHORE - BOUGIE - SENTEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
10
≈ 2.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 34
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAPH21095
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 220 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bougies - HOME DECO FACTORY - 50 bougies - 9g - Diamètre 3,8 cm - Intérieur · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (413 days of history, 238 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.99 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 39.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 51.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 220.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.4K |