Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPF53307
Gel Anti-FOURMIS : Protection efficace, tube 20g, action ciblée.
longtail
3P
INSECTICIDE - RATICIDE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
35
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 53
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAPF53307
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 47 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Anti-FOURMIS : Protection efficace, tube 20g, action ciblée. · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +60.0% · on-hand 35 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 34 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.52 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 47.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |