Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPE76658
ULTRA DOUX - HAIRFOOD PINEAPPLE - 390 ml
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-22.2%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
44
≈ 7.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 70
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAPE76658
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 207 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ULTRA DOUX - HAIRFOOD PINEAPPLE - 390 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 44 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (427 days of history, 333 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 51.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 206.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.5K |