Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPE20506
Shampooing Anti-Chute CAPILA 400 ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
480
Σ Stock across 10 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 158
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-29
AAAPE20506
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Shampooing Anti-Chute CAPILA 400 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 480 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (448 days of history, 64 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.51 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.1K |