Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPE06259
Gel Douche - Nivea Men - Active Clean - 250ml - Non gras - Charbon actif
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▲ 550.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
68
Σ Stock across 6 live offers
1P stock
18
≈ 15.0 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-25
AAAPE06259
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche - Nivea Men - Active Clean - 250ml - Non gras - Charbon actif · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending up +550.0% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 60 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |