Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPE06236
Cotons-Tiges de Sécurité pour Bébé 56pcs
longtail
1P + 3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
132
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
12
≈ 8.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAPE06236
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cotons-Tiges de Sécurité pour Bébé 56pcs · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 64 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 68.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 529 |