Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPD37122
Verres à thé- GENERIC - Piémontais - Décorés Doré - 12 pièces - Élégance Chic
longtail
1P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
47
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
47
≈ 103.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 77
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-07-20
AAAPD37122
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 60 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Verres à thé- GENERIC - Piémontais - Décorés Doré - 12 pièces - Élégance Chic · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 47 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (301 days of history, 20 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.29 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |