Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPD00203
Théière en Verre - GENERIC - HB3565-1 - 0,9L - Couvercle Inox - Compatible Lave-Vaisselle
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
113
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
1
≈ 1.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-15
AAAPD00203
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Théière en Verre - GENERIC - HB3565-1 - 0,9L - Couvercle Inox - Compatible Lave-Vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (462 days of history, 49 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 10.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |