Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPD00203
Théière en Verre - GENERIC - HB3565-1 - 0,9L - Couvercle Inox - Compatible Lave-Vaisselle
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
8
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
133
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 6.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAPD00203
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 158 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Théière en Verre - GENERIC - HB3565-1 - 0,9L - Couvercle Inox - Compatible Lave-Vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 54 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.61 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 66.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 158.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.3K |