Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOZ94787
ADIDAS - Sac à dos Pour Enfants 11,5 L - LK BP 3BAR - Unisexe - Noir
longtail
1P
MAROQUINERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▼ 36.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
91
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
91
≈ 31.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAOZ94787
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 306 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ADIDAS - Sac à dos Pour Enfants 11,5 L - LK BP 3BAR - Unisexe - Noir · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending down -36.4% · on-hand 91 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (490 days of history, 204 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 44 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 80.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 18.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 306.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 44.7K |