Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOX14053
Lot 2 shampooings Johnson Baby Gold 300 ml - 2ème à -50%
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 80.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAOX14053
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 448 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot 2 shampooings Johnson Baby Gold 300 ml - 2ème à -50% · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -80.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (385 days of history, 236 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.27 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 82 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 14.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 44.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 111.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 52.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 168.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 447.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.6K |