Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOW14940
Kit de Défrisage Dark and Lovely - Superior Moisture Plus - Lissage & Hydratation
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 129
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAOW14940
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 97 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kit de Défrisage Dark and Lovely - Superior Moisture Plus - Lissage & Hydratation · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 33.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 97.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.6K |