Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOW14940
Kit de Défrisage Dark and Lovely - Superior Moisture Plus - Lissage & Hydratation
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 94
avg of last 24 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAOW14940
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kit de Défrisage Dark and Lovely - Superior Moisture Plus - Lissage & Hydratation · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (427 days of history, 37 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.9K |