Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOW12366
Signal – Dentifrice 120 ml – Hygiène bucco‑dentaire – Offre spéciale 2+1
longtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▲ 1500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
183
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAOW12366
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 508 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Signal – Dentifrice 120 ml – Hygiène bucco‑dentaire – Offre spéciale 2+1 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending up +1500.0% · on-hand 195 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (518 days of history, 144 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.08 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 9.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 40.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 157.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 25.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 122.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 508.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.3K |