Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOT15098
Gel douche 2 en 1 - Christelle Paris - Fruits exotiques - 500ml - Hypoallergénique - Doux
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
36
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+300.0%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 1.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAOT15098
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 382 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche 2 en 1 - Christelle Paris - Fruits exotiques - 500ml - Hypoallergénique - Doux · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 36 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (441 days of history, 346 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 36 units · prev 4w = 30 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 19.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 48.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 108.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 39.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 156.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 381.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.2K |