Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAOT15091
Gel nettoyant hydratant pour le visage sans parfum sans paraben - 200 ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-57.1%
vs same 4w last year (21 units)
Current stock
9
≈ 2.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAOT15091
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel nettoyant hydratant pour le visage sans parfum sans paraben - 200 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (441 days of history, 218 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 114.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |