Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOT08970
Four Posable - MGS - EO1122B - 40L - 1350W - Gris
longtail
3P
PETIT APPAREIL DE CUISSON
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 81.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
60
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 489
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-03
AAAOT08970
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 134 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Four Posable - MGS - EO1122B - 40L - 1350W - Gris · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -81.2% · on-hand 62 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (532 days of history, 182 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.12 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 65.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 65.7K |