Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOE45782
Terreau de rempotage 20 L
midtail
3P
JARDINAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
41
▼ 42.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
115
≈ 19.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 45
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAOE45782
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 401 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Terreau de rempotage 20 L · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 41 units, trending down -42.3% · on-hand 115 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (238 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 41 units · prev 4w = 71 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 12.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 54.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 142.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 26.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 132.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 400.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.9K |