Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOB69553
Eau de Parfum - RARE PEARLS - Avon Rare Pearls - 50 ml - Floral - Notes de Néroli et Santal
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
22
Σ Stock across 3 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 112
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AAAOB69553
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 63 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eau de Parfum - RARE PEARLS - Avon Rare Pearls - 50 ml - Floral - Notes de Néroli et Santal · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 22 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (462 days of history, 46 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 62.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.0K |