Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAOB04430
Poubelle 20L avec Pédale A1/M4 SB0115
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
4
≈ 28.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 132
avg of last 12 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAOB04430
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 76 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Poubelle 20L avec Pédale A1/M4 SB0115 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (595 days of history, 11 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.35 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.0K |