Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAOA57556
L'Oréal Paris - ELSEVE Shampooing HYALURON PURE - 200 ml
longtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-46.7%
vs same 4w last year (15 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAOA57556
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 111 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris - ELSEVE Shampooing HYALURON PURE - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +60.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (448 days of history, 124 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 111.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |