Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAOA43146
TEFAL – Cocotte Inox Secure 5 Compact P35344 – 8 L
longtail
3P
CUISSON DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 54.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 718
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAOA43146
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TEFAL – Cocotte Inox Secure 5 Compact P35344 – 8 L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -54.5% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (602 days of history, 108 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 109.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 78.9K |