Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANZ32043
Déodorant - Nivea - Dry Impact - Spray 200ml - Protection 48h - Non gras
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 92.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
269
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
10
≈ 3.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-16
AAANZ32043
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant - Nivea - Dry Impact - Spray 200ml - Protection 48h - Non gras · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -92.3% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (210 days of history, 89 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.17 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 63.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |