Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANY15019
Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 20 MASCARA TEAR
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
9
≈ 7.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 78
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAANY15019
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 94 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 20 MASCARA TEAR · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (539 days of history, 55 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 19.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.4K |