Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANY15015
Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 40 PETALCORE
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
22
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
5
≈ 9.7 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 90
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-28
AAANY15015
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 39 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 40 PETALCORE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (434 days of history, 12 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.61 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 38.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.5K |