Demand Forecast

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Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 55 KNEEHIGH
SKU · AAANY15014

Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 55 KNEEHIGH

longtail 1P MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

5
new activity (no prior baseline)

Year-over-year

-61.5%
vs same 4w last year (13 units)

Current stock

2
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 83
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-13

AAANY15014

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 64 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Maybelline New York Superstay Teddy Tint Blush à lèvres liquide fini mat fondu 55 KNEEHIGH · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 2 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (427 days of history, 89 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 0 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week1.1 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks4.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months17.6 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week4.5 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)19.1 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)63.6 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)1.4
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 5.3K