Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANX57056
Savon - TAOUS - Lavande - 4 Barres - 480g - Sans Parabène
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 70.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
332
≈ 41.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANX57056
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 366 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon - TAOUS - Lavande - 4 Barres - 480g - Sans Parabène · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -70.0% · on-hand 332 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (462 days of history, 527 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.71 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 62.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 28.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 118.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 366.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.0K |