Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANU08996
Crayon à sourcils - MISS DEMI - Noir XXL - Waterproof - Longue tenue - Peigne de précision
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
96
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAANU08996
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 224 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crayon à sourcils - MISS DEMI - Noir XXL - Waterproof - Longue tenue - Peigne de précision · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 97 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (602 days of history, 183 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 76.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 223.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |