Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANU08996
Crayon à sourcils - MISS DEMI - Noir XXL - Waterproof - Longue tenue - Peigne de précision
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 96.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.3%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
150
≈ 42.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AAANU08996
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 139 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crayon à sourcils - MISS DEMI - Noir XXL - Waterproof - Longue tenue - Peigne de précision · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -96.3% · on-hand 150 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (476 days of history, 228 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 27 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 138.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |