Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANT44704
Crème Reconstituante - GARNIER - Trésors de Miel - 200ml - Sans Rinçage - 98% Ingrédients Naturels
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
129
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
57
≈ 31.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAANT44704
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 233 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Reconstituante - GARNIER - Trésors de Miel - 200ml - Sans Rinçage - 98% Ingrédients Naturels · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +33.3% · on-hand 57 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (609 days of history, 118 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.42 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 233.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.4K |