Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANS52623
LA ROCHE‑POSAY Anthelios UVMune 400 Gel‑Crème SPF 50+ — 50 ml + Eau Thermale 50 ml (Pack)
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 143
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AAANS52623
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LA ROCHE‑POSAY Anthelios UVMune 400 Gel‑Crème SPF 50+ — 50 ml + Eau Thermale 50 ml (Pack) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (399 days of history, 82 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.5K |