Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANS44769
Sérum - Frozen - Collagen 2 in 1 Whitening X10 - Éclaircissant - Anti-âge - 100g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 30.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+600.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 11.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAANS44769
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 74 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum - Frozen - Collagen 2 in 1 Whitening X10 - Éclaircissant - Anti-âge - 100g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -30.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 55 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.7K |