Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANR16223
Après-shampoing - GARNIER - ULTRA DOUX - Huile d'avocat - 200 ML - Ultra nourrissant
midtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 77.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
25
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
7
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAANR16223
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 306 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Après-shampoing - GARNIER - ULTRA DOUX - Huile d'avocat - 200 ML - Ultra nourrissant · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -77.8% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (511 days of history, 263 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.33 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 97.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 305.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.2K |