Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANQ71855
Vernis à ongles - PASTEL - NAIL POLISH 39 - Couleur pastel doux - Finition lisse - Séchage rapide
longtail
3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAANQ71855
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vernis à ongles - PASTEL - NAIL POLISH 39 - Couleur pastel doux - Finition lisse - Séchage rapide · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (448 days of history, 21 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 52.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |