Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANQ37685
Tasse fleurs séchées - AYA HOME - Double paroi - Verre - Multicolore - Élégante - Couleurs aléatoires - 300ml
longtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-66.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
99
≈ 72.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAANQ37685
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 63 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tasse fleurs séchées - AYA HOME - Double paroi - Verre - Multicolore - Élégante - Couleurs aléatoires - 300ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 99 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (532 days of history, 88 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |