Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANP97314
Gloss - ESSENCE - GLOSS STAY 8H MATTE LIQUID 16 - Fini mat - Couleur intense - Application facile
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANP97314
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gloss - ESSENCE - GLOSS STAY 8H MATTE LIQUID 16 - Fini mat - Couleur intense - Application facile · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 32 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.54 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |