Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANO04016
Pack éclaircissant et anti-taches brunes
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 45.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-62.5%
vs same 4w last year (16 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 140
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAANO04016
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 190 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack éclaircissant et anti-taches brunes · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -45.5% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (462 days of history, 424 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.32 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 190.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 26.7K |