Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANN47052
écran solaire imperméable et hydratant avec SPF50+ pour peau sensible, 50 ml Invisible nouvelle formule
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
71
▼ 39.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+31.5%
vs same 4w last year (54 units)
Current stock
2
≈ 0.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 43
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANN47052
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 434 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
écran solaire imperméable et hydratant avec SPF50+ pour peau sensible, 50 ml Invisible nouvelle formule · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 71 units, trending down -39.8% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (525 days of history, 861 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.35 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 71 units · prev 4w = 118 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 15.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 59.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 143.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 34.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 160.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 434.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.6K |