Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANN47052
écran solaire imperméable et hydratant avec SPF50+ pour peau sensible, 50 ml Invisible nouvelle formule
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
49
▼ 36.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
749
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAANN47052
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 821 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
écran solaire imperméable et hydratant avec SPF50+ pour peau sensible, 50 ml Invisible nouvelle formule · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 49 units, trending down -36.4% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (644 days of history, 1,051 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.19 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 49 units · prev 4w = 77 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 220.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 35.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 127.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 820.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 12.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 25.0K |