Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANN41597
CHRISTELLE PARIS - Gel nettoyant purifiant - Hypoallergénique - 400ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
988
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 71
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAANN41597
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 161 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CHRISTELLE PARIS - Gel nettoyant purifiant - Hypoallergénique - 400ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 988 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (574 days of history, 342 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.59 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 66.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 160.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.4K |