Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAANN41597
CHRISTELLE PARIS - Gel nettoyant purifiant - Hypoallergénique - 400ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-20.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
998
≈ 170.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAANN41597
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 123 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CHRISTELLE PARIS - Gel nettoyant purifiant - Hypoallergénique - 400ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 998 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (518 days of history, 371 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.56 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 123.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.2K |