Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANM21040
GARNIER ULTRA DOUX - Après-Shampoing Infusion d’Eau de Riz et à l’Amidon - 200ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
218
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
11
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAANM21040
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 142 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GARNIER ULTRA DOUX - Après-Shampoing Infusion d’Eau de Riz et à l’Amidon - 200ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (581 days of history, 161 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.13 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |