Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANL61239
Vichy - Shampoing Dercos - Anti-Pelliculaire - Cheveux Secs - 200ml + Miniature Offerte
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
59
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+321.4%
vs same 4w last year (14 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 124
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANL61239
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 428 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vichy - Shampoing Dercos - Anti-Pelliculaire - Cheveux Secs - 200ml + Miniature Offerte · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 59 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (532 days of history, 328 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.50 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 59 units · prev 4w = 177 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 12.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 56.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 128.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 33.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 160.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 428.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 53.0K |