Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANL06095
Écran solaire - Bionike - Defence Sun Spray - SPF50+ - 200ml - Transparent et résistant à l'eau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 69.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
36
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 111
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAANL06095
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 138 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Écran solaire - Bionike - Defence Sun Spray - SPF50+ - 200ml - Transparent et résistant à l'eau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -69.6% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (336 days of history, 42 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 66.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 138.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.3K |