Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANJ76887
Ampoule Éclaircissante - SKIN1004 - Madagascar Centella - 100 ml - Hydratation Durable - Sans Parabène
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-70.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 6.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 252
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAANJ76887
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ampoule Éclaircissante - SKIN1004 - Madagascar Centella - 100 ml - Hydratation Durable - Sans Parabène · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 39 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.4K |