Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANF24052
Savon Authentique Taous – Lot de 4 x 120g
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▲ 12.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+260.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
2,812
≈ 150.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-15
AAANF24052
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 392 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon Authentique Taous – Lot de 4 x 120g · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending up +12.5% · on-hand 2812 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (525 days of history, 1,400 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.23 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 19.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 67.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 24.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 108.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 391.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.7K |