Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAANE74162
Puzzle EVA Alphabet & Nombres - Tapis de Jeu pour Bébé - Multicolore
longtail
3P
MONDE MINIATURE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-12.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
3
≈ 2.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAANE74162
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Puzzle EVA Alphabet & Nombres - Tapis de Jeu pour Bébé - Multicolore · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +16.7% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (553 days of history, 82 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |