Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANE21726
Gel Nettoyant Exfoliant Anti-Pigments - EUCERIN - 200 ml - AHA 2 % - Non gras - Sans parabène
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▲ 18.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+280.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
723
≈ 278.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 163
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANE21726
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 136 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant Exfoliant Anti-Pigments - EUCERIN - 200 ml - AHA 2 % - Non gras - Sans parabène · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending up +18.8% · on-hand 723 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (532 days of history, 154 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.2K |