Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANE21726
Gel Nettoyant Exfoliant Anti-Pigments - EUCERIN - 200 ml - AHA 2 % - Non gras - Sans parabène
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 84.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,266
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 156
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AAANE21726
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 141 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant Exfoliant Anti-Pigments - EUCERIN - 200 ml - AHA 2 % - Non gras - Sans parabène · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -84.2% · on-hand 2354 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (588 days of history, 164 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 20.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 77.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.1K |