Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAND63439
PanOxyl Nettoyant moussant contre l'acné, Peroxyde de benzoyle 10 % - 156g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 13.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+225.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
6
≈ 4.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 249
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAND63439
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PanOxyl Nettoyant moussant contre l'acné, Peroxyde de benzoyle 10 % - 156g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -13.3% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 63 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 30.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.3K |