Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANC40866
Huile capillaire Plex Care, 50 ml, Balea
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 72.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
31
≈ 16.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAANC40866
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 141 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Huile capillaire Plex Care, 50 ml, Balea · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -72.7% · on-hand 31 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 140 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 54.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.6K |