Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANB90575
Pack de soins de la peau - EVIANA - Anti-taches brunes - SPF 50 - Gel nettoyant 200ml - Crème hydratante 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4,501
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
41
≈ 27.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 205
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAANB90575
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 74 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack de soins de la peau - EVIANA - Anti-taches brunes - SPF 50 - Gel nettoyant 200ml - Crème hydratante 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 41 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (602 days of history, 85 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 39.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.2K |